A Glimpse at the Future

Slowly but surely we are working our way through the burst housing bubble and the corresponding credit crisis.  We are transitioning from a “credit driven” economy to more of a “cash based” economy.  What is this likely to produce?

In the auto sector, the market for used cars and repair shops is going to grow.  On average a person will buy a new car every eight to ten years not every three to five. 

If you want to buy a house, a downpayment of thirty to forty percent will be required.

More people will rent for longer.

More people will save up to buy goods such as TVs, stereos, appliances and furniture.  Layaway will increase and the use of credit cards will decrease.

More people will refuse to live beyond their means.  Time shares, clothing sales and restaurants will see limited if any growth.

More people will invest in land and property in the area where they live or in second homes likely to become the home once retirement arrives.

So-called urgent care clinics will become more common.

The stock market will basically sit at the same level for years at a time.

Government provided social services will decline.  Religious institutions and charities will fill the gap.

As the ability of government to deliver what the people want and need declines, the electorate will begin electing candidates with proven track records of success in their personal lives and employment or business.  This will result in the elimination of “feel good” legislation and an increase in “full disclosure and accountability” rules for business, labor and the marketplace.

Over the next ten years, a third political party will emerge.  The president in 2016 will not be a Democrat or a Republican.


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